Are We Heading Towards Less Blend Variety?

Looking over my tupperdors this morning (I have more than I care to share), I noticed that Nicaraguan cigars dominate my collection. But it got me thinking about what the export numbers look like from the cigar-producing countries. So I did some digging and came across an article by Tobacco Reporter¹:

Nicaragua accounts for 58.8% of U.S. cigars, shipping 253.1 million cigars in 2024, a 2.7% increase over the previous year. The Dominican Republic shipped 106 million cigars, a 1.8% decrease from 2023, followed by Honduras’ 67.4 million cigars, a 3.3% increase. Those three countries account for 99% of the U.S. cigar supply.

Costa Rica saw a 44.9% jump in the number of cigars it sends to the U.S., and at 2.5 million units is the only other producer to top the 1 million mark.

I already knew that Nicaragua dominated cigar exports, but seeing the hard data gave me pause. When one country holds close to 60 percent of the U.S. market, it naturally raises questions about what that kind of concentration means for blend variety going forward. And this is clearly market‑driven. U.S. consumers have already decided which profile they prefer, and my own collection is proof of it.

When a single country commands that much of the market, it doesn’t just reflect preference — it reinforces it. Retailers stock what sells. Manufacturers lean into the profiles that move volume. Over time, the center of gravity shifts toward the dominant style, not because other profiles disappear, but because the market keeps rewarding the same core attributes. You can see it in my tupperdors as plainly as in the import numbers.

In my article, The Montecristo That Revealed the Nicaragua We Never Got, I talked about how market forces made the Montecristo Nicaragua 2000 LE invisible. Looking at these numbers, it’s hard not to see a parallel. Back then, the market wasn’t prepared to recognize a Nicaraguan profile that didn’t match expectations. Today, the situation is inverted: the market overwhelmingly rewards a specific Nicaraguan profile, and anything outside that risks getting drowned out.

The Monte 2000 LE disappeared because it didn’t fit the prevailing demand. Now, with Nicaragua holding close to 60 percent of the market, the gravitational pull works in the opposite direction. Blends that don’t align with the dominant profile have a harder time breaking through.

It’s not that diversity disappears. It’s that the market makes certain profiles louder and others quieter. And just like the Monte 2000 LE got lost in the noise of its time, you can imagine how easily that dynamic could repeat itself when one country’s palate signature becomes the default setting for the industry.

I’ve started to notice it locally. Over the past year, my lounge’s humidor has leaned more heavily toward core Nicaraguan brands. I asked the owner about it. He said, “That’s what our regulars like you want. Plus, it’s getting tougher to get smaller brands from our distributors.”

That’s how the shelves start to echo the import charts. The more the market rewards one profile, the more the ecosystem bends around it. Retailers stock what sells. Distributors push what retailers reorder. Consumers buy what’s in front of them. It’s a loop — subtle, but powerful — and you can feel it even in a single humidor.

To be clear, I’m not advocating anything like “Smoke fewer Nicaraguan cigars,” and I’m not implying this is some looming crisis. But it does make me wonder what happens if the numbers tilt even further in that direction. At some point, a dominant profile doesn’t just reflect the market — it starts to shape the language around it. Every write-up becomes a variation on black coffee, dark cocoa, cedar, and cream. Not because reviewers lack imagination, but because the market keeps rewarding blends built around that core architecture.

Variety is part of what makes this hobby interesting. If the shelves, the distributors, and the import charts all keep leaning the same way, it’s fair to wonder how much room will be left for blends that don’t fit the prevailing mold.

I love that profile — my collection proves it.

But I don’t want a future where everything starts to taste like a remix of the same four notes.